Abstract: In this paper, a method of damage effect analysis was established to evaluate the damage of fragmentation warheads on early-warning aircraft (EWA). The method considers the vulnerability model of mission systems as well as the detection and detonation processes of proximity fuzes. The mission-level model of the kill tree was established based on the characteristics of EWA mission systems. The detection position of fuzes was calculated by the scan line method, and the optimal detonation position was calculated with the target configuration in the coordinate system of the relative velocity considered. The damage probability was calculated by the Monte Carlo method. The effects of intercept conditions, detonation delays, guidance precision, and aiming centers on damage probabilities were analyzed. The results show that, self-adaptively-delayed detonation significantly increases kill probabilities, and reduces the influence of intercept conditions, which decreases with increasing guidance precision; for self-adaptively-delayed detonation, the damage probability is mainly influenced by the exposure area and the aiming center, and higher kill probabilities happen when the geometry center is targeted.