基于PCA-OS-ELM的大气PM2.5浓度预测

PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on PCA-OS-ELM

  • 摘要: 为了提高细颗粒物PM2.5浓度预测精度,提出一种主元成分分析与在线序列极限学习机相结合(PCA-OS-ELM)的PM2.5浓度预测方法. 首先,通过主成分分析方法(PCA)提取高维大气数据中影响空气质量的关键变量,并去除不必要的冗余变量;其次,利用提取的关键变量建立在线序列极限学习机(OS-ELM)网络预测模型,将批处理和逐次迭代相结合,不断更新训练数据和网络参数实现大气PM2.5浓度快速预测.研究结果表明,PCA-OS-ELM预测方法采用不同批次训练数据更新模型的方式,能够快速实现大气PM2.5浓度预测,证明了该方法的有效性.与其他方法相比,该方法预测误差小,预测精度高,具有更好的实用价值.

     

    Abstract: In order to improve the prediction accuracy of PM2.5 concentration,a method based on the principal component analysis and online sequential extreme learning machine (PCA-OS-ELM) was proposed to predict PM2.5 concentration in this paper. Firstly,principal component analysis (PCA) was used to extract the key variables affecting air quality in high-dimensional atmospheric data,and remove unnecessary redundant variables. Secondly,an online sequential extreme learning machine (OS-ELM) network prediction model was established by using the extracted key variables. Finally,the training data and network parameters were continuously updated to realize the rapid prediction of PM2.5 concentration by combining batch processing with successive iteration. The results show that,taking different batches of training data to update the model,the PCA-OS-ELM prediction method can quickly realize the prediction of atmospheric PM2.5 concentration,proving the effectiveness of the proposed method. Compared with other methods,this method shows little prediction error,higher prediction accuracy and better practical value.

     

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