Abstract:
Aiming at the remaining useful life (RUL) prediction issue of hybrid degradation equipment with discrete shock, a parallel simulation technology was studied to predict the RUL of hybrid degradation equipments. Firstly, a simulation model was proposed based on a hybrid Wiener state space model, taking the arrival of Poisson shock as the selection criteria of the model. Driven by the real-time degradation data, the online simulation model selection was carried out, realizing the data assimilation of simulation model and online estimation of unknown parameter with a strong tracking filter and expectation maximum algorithm. And it was accomplished to evolve the model and improve the fidelity of simulation model. As a result, the parallel simulation based real-time prediction of RUL was realized. Then, utilizing the degradation data of a bearing, the proposed method was verified. The simulation results show that the parallel simulation method can simulate the performance degradation process effectively, and can predict the RUL with less uncertainty and high accuracy.