休闲旅客出行选择行为潜类别分析

A Latent Class Approach for Analyzing Choice Behavior of Leisure Travelers

  • 摘要: 鉴于以往研究中对于异质性特点考虑的不足,引入潜类别分析理论对中国客运市场中休闲旅客的出行选择行为进行研究.设计了旅客出行选择的潜类别模型并给出了相应的拟合方法,在此基础上,组织开展了针对休闲旅客的大规模SP调查并对调查数据进行分析.通过MNL模型和MMNL模型的拟合验证了休闲客运市场中旅客出行选择行为异质性的存在,进而,通过潜类别模型的拟合将休闲客运市场进一步划分为3个细分市场,并从模型的标定结果出发,进一步明确了各个细分市场的偏好特点与组成特点.

     

    Abstract: In view of the ignorance of heterogeneity in previous studies, latent class analysis theory was introduced to research Chinese leisure travelers' choice behavior. According to the basic theory of latent class analysis, alatent class model of travelers' choice behavior was designed and corresponding fitting method was given.Then, a stated preference survey to leisure travelers was conducted and the survey data was further analyzed. MNL and MMNL models were first established, which indicated the heterogeneity of choice behavior among leisure travelers. Then, latent class analysiswas conducted, through which the leisure passenger transport market was proven consisting of three segmentations. And based on the results, the preference structure and constitution of each segmentation were also clear.

     

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