考虑空间不平稳的交通拥堵传播特性研究

Spatial Propagating Characteristic Study of Urban Traffic Congestion Considering Spatial Nonstationarity

  • 摘要: 基于城市道路交通拥堵的空间影响特征和传播规律对交通管理和诱导措施的重要作用,在分析城市道路交通流数据空间不平稳性的基础上,对空间Durbin模型进行改进,并据此提出一种道路交通拥堵传播特性分析方法.通过北京市的案例研究发现,改进模型对交通流的描述效果得到了显著提高;局部交通拥堵具有显著空间传播特性,且随空间范围扩大逐渐衰减;特别是当路网处于临界密度状态时(14:00左右),局部拥堵的传播影响达到最大.因此,拥堵缓解措施应对路网临界密度状态及关键节点进行重点监控和疏导,以控制拥堵传播所造成的空间影响.

     

    Abstract: Research on spatial propagation rules of traffic congestion is a significant foundation of traffic management and route guidance. In this paper,spatial nonstationarity of traffic datawas firstly studied, and then an analysis method of traffic congestion propagationwas also derived. Effectiveness verification of the improved model was embodied in the case of the road network of Beijing. The case studies imply that, traffic congestion happening on local road will spread to others, and the influence of propagation decreases with distance.The spatial influence of traffic congestion reaches the maximum in road networks with critical density. Therefore, closer supervision of the key nodes with critical-density status inthe network should be conducted to limit the spatial influence of traffic congestion.

     

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