Dynamic Experiment Error Analysis Method Based on Conditional Sampling Under Epistemic Uncertainty

A dynamic experiment error (DEE) analysis method was proposed for analyzing the probability distribution of dynamic experiment error based on conditional sampling under epistemic uncertainty(EU)to improve the error analysis accuracy tampered with lack of experiment equipment and model information.Firstly,the EU of experiment system was divided into measure device EU and model EU,and the relationship between two kinds of their probability distribution was formulated.Then a conditional sampling method was designed to establish the relationship between DEE distribution and EU.The best DEE and EU parameters were gotten by comparing the sampled distribution with the experiment result.Finally,the method was validate in a fuze air burst distance experiment.Compared with experiment result and the error distribution simulation result without taking the epistemic uncertainty into account,the error distribution resulted in this method is more match with the experiment result.