Evaluation of Chinese Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects Investment Based on Real Option

According to the basic situation of photovoltaic power generation in our country, this paper establishes an investment evaluation model of the photovoltaic power generation projects. The uncertainties of non-renewable cost, investment cost, and price policy of solar PV power generation were all considered in this model. Then the model is solved by Least Squares Monte Carlo simulation method. Using this model, this paper analyzes the investment value, delay option value, and the optimal investment time of China's photovoltaic power generation project at present situation. This paper also examines the effect of market variables, technology progress, and policy on these two indicators. The results show the current investment environment is not positive enough to attract investment immediately. The rising of non-renewable energy power generation cost volatility will increase investment value of solar photovoltaic power generation project, but the optimal investment time would be postponed. The rising of technological change drift rate will increase investment value of solar photovoltaic power generation project, and rising of technological change volatility will reduce investment value of solar photovoltaic power generation project. Therefore, the Chinese government should increase subsidy and R&D input as well as maintain the stability of market condition and technology progress to stimulate investment and promote the development of the solar PV power generation in China.