Technology Forecast of China’s Steel and Iron Industry：A Life Cycle Analysis on the Patent

Based on the patent data of China's steel and iron industry, the paper applies the technology life cycle theory and the Logistic model to conduct technology forecast research. The results show that the first stage(1985—2009) is germination stage when steel and iron industry developed at a relatively slow speed. The second stage(2010—2021)is its growth stage when development of patent technology accelerates and some important inventions appear. The third stage(2022—2033)is the mature stage, when peripheral patents constitute a major part. After that, the stage of decline will arrive, and patent applications will decrease. According to the development stage of technology development and strength comparison of domestic and foreign patents, the paper puts forward a patent strategy with three steps for the industrial technology innovation in China. The three steps are breakthroughs in core technology, the establishment of patent portfolio, and international development.