Scenario Analysis of China’s Regional Carbon Intensity Target Setting—Taking Beijing City as an Example

This paper uses scenario analysis method to study the regional carbon intensity target setting. Based on regional carbon emission model, the paper firstly sets the scenarios according to the important influence factors in the model, then analyzes and predicts the carbon intensity reduction in this region, and at last sets suitable carbon intensity target. Taking Beijing city as an example, this paper sets 15 different development scenarios, and analyzes implementation of carbon intensity target in different scenarios. The result shows that 18% reduction target of carbon intensity during "The 12th Five-Year Plan" in Beijing is reasonable; a carbon intensity target between 45%~50% from 2005—2020 in Beijing will be more reasonable; the carbon intensity during "The 13th Five-Year Plan" in Beijing reduction interval should be between 6%~8%. For Beijing city, the rising of economic growth level, the rising of tertiary industry proportion in the industrial structure, and the steady development of urbanization, all can contribute to achieving the carbon intensity target.