Development and Application of Long-term and Multi-stage Oil Price Forecasting System

The intense volatility of the oil price may have great effects not only on the economy but also on the whole society. It has become a very important task to forecast the trend of oil price accurately. This paper designs and develops Long-term and Multi-stage Oil Price Forecasting System(LOFS)based on MAW model. The application of LOFS proves that LOFS can forecast the trend of oil price in the future in a certain degree, but the key of the forecast is the choice of appropriate parameters(e.g. wave type). This paper proposes a method to determine these parameters based on computational experiments and accordingly forecasts the trend of Brent crude oil price in 2013.