On the Risk Evaluation Model of Generic Drug Project Based on an Analytic Network Process（ANP）

Every year, a large number of medicines lost their patent protection in the world, providing unprecedented opportunities for Chinese pharmaceutical manufactures to develop the generic drugs, but simultaneously there is a huge risk for the development of new generic drugs. In this paper, we have built the risk evaluation model for the development of new generic drug projects, which based on the principles of the analytic network process. We have studied the characteristics of the development of new generic drug projects and built two levels risk assessment indicators in this model. We developed the ANP risk assessment maps for new generic drug project by investigating the relationship of the indicators thoroughly. This model can easily quantify the risks facing the new generic drugs projects by using the software of super decisions（SD）.It provides a good guidance for generic medicine manufactures to avoid risk and choose the proper new generic drug projects. Finally, this model also was applied to the risk assessment in the development of new generic drugs.