Research on China’s Energy Economy Index under the Energy Powerhouse Strategy

In the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China’s energy sector bears the dual mission of fortifying national energy security and cultivating “new quality productive forces.” Focusing on both traditional and emerging energy sectors, the status of China’s Energy Economic Index was measured through multiple dimensions, including policy support, supply-demand dynamics, high-quality development, stock indices, and financial performance. Furthermore, a coupling coordination degree model was employed to forecast the future potential of 16 energy sub-sectors. The empirical results indicate that in 2025, underpinned by a robust energy economy, China’s macroeconomy maintained a steady and positive trajectory, effectively withstanding shocks from global tariff adjustments. Projections for 2026 suggest that sectors such as hydrogen energy, electric vehicle batteries, and photovoltaic modules will continue to lead the industry, while nuclear and biomass energy are accumulating significant potential for synergistic development. In response to the shifting global energy landscape, China must adhere to a clean and low-carbon strategy. For new energy sectors like photovoltaics, policies aimed at curbing low-level homogeneous competition should be implemented to guide quality improvement, efficiency gains, and multi-dimensional coordination. Conversely, for traditional sectors such as thermal power, emphasis should be placed on technological transformation and reinforcing their role in grid dispatch and supply security, thereby providing solid energy assurance for Chinese modernization.