Global Energy Transition Performance Assessment and Bottleneck Identification from a Trade-network Perspective

Geopolitical turbulence and rapid technological iteration are reshaping global energy supply chains and amplifying uncertainty. Existing assessment systems are largely confined to domestic indicators, making it difficult to capture dynamic spillovers driven by the evolution of global trade networks. In this report, complex network analysis and machine learning were integrated to build a unified framework combining internal five-dimensional drivers with external network effects, and the comprehensive energy transition performance of 115 countries from 2015 to 2024 was evaluated. The results showed that in 2024 the global energy trade network remained relatively efficient, yet polarization intensified, leading to heightened risks of cascading vulnerability. Although countries’ overall performance in 2024 was higher than in 2015, energy equity fell to a historical low and was constrained by bottlenecks in transition enablers such as finance and institutional capacity, accompanied by a rebound in cross-country disparity. China ranked 13th globally, achieving a 21% improvement compared with 2015, driven jointly by declining technology costs and strengthened policy support, while further progress remained needed in sustainability. These findings suggest that energy transition strategies should coordinate domestic performance with external network position to enhance robustness and resilience amid increasing global turbulence.