Analysis and Projection of International Crude Oil Prices in 2025

In 2024, the global economy experienced a moderate recovery, while international oil prices declined, influenced by a combination of factors such as divergent policy shifts, intensified supply and demand dynamics, and frequent local conflicts. Looking forward to 2025, from the perspective of fundamentals and non-fundamentals, in the paper the future trajectory of the global economy, energy transformation, supply, inventory, the US dollar, market speculation, gold and geopolitical factors were analyzed. The forecast result integrates objective calculations from predictive models with subjective judgments from experts. It is anticipated that international crude oil price will continue its downward trend in 2025. Although market supply and demand will be tight, the growth rate of demand is not expected to keep pace with supply. Geopolitical conflicts remain a significant risk factor, contributing to short-term uncertainty. The average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil are projected to be in the range of 67 ~ 77 per barrel and 62 ~ 72 per barrel, respectively.