Evolution and Trend Forecast of Energy Economic Index in China

In the post-COVID-19 era, the international and domestic environment is complex and volatile. At the critical stage of high-quality transformation of the energy economy, it is necessary to establish a comprehensive and scientific indicator system based on the industry perspective to evaluate and monitor the development process of the energy economy. In this study, 15 key energy sub-industries were taken as research subjects, and a three-level index system including macroeconomic environment, medium industrial development and micro enterprise performance was established. On the basis of calculating the actual economic dynamics of energy sub-industries, BP neural network method was used to predict and evaluate the security supply, high-quality transformation trend and investment hot spots of the short-term energy industry in 2023. The empirical results show that China’s energy economy rebounded steadily in 2022, and the macroeconomic and energy economy trends will improve in 2023, and is forecasted to return to the level of 2019. In the short term, photovoltaic power generation industry and wind power generation industry have comprehensive advantages such as high industry quality and high stock index, which can be used as priority investment targets. In the long run, the industry index of power grid automatic control equipment has been steadily improved, which has investment potential. The demand for energy supply is expected to rebound in 2023, and the traditional energy industry of thermal power and hydropower generation is still the main force to ensure supply, so it is necessary to stimulate the system to adjust new values. The energy industry as a whole needs to ensure the safe and stable supply of energy, seize the opportunity of macroeconomic recovery, to upgrade rapidly, and back-feed national economic revitalization.