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HAO Yu, BA Ning, GAI Zhiqiang, YAN Guoyao. Forecast and Prospect of China's Energy Economy under Economic Pressure amid Economic SlowdownJ. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology (Social Sciences Edition), 2020, 22(2): 1-9. DOI: 10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2020.7302
Citation: HAO Yu, BA Ning, GAI Zhiqiang, YAN Guoyao. Forecast and Prospect of China's Energy Economy under Economic Pressure amid Economic SlowdownJ. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology (Social Sciences Edition), 2020, 22(2): 1-9. DOI: 10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2020.7302

Forecast and Prospect of China's Energy Economy under Economic Pressure amid Economic Slowdown

  • The 2019 central economic working conference emphasized that China is in the critical period of transforming development mode,optimizing economic structure and transforming growth power,and the downward pressure of economy is increasing. Based on this background,this paper expounds the current situation of energy economy development,analyzes the development prospects of key industries,and discusses the path and trend of China's energy economy development under the background of economic pressure through prediction and analysis under different scenarios. According to the prediction results,the economic pressure has a general impact on the energy consumption of various industries,especially the energy consumption of coal,ferrous metal smelting and automobile industry will decline in the future; under the benchmark situation,China's GDP is expected to reach 171.97 trillion yuan(constant price level in 2018) by 2030,with a total energy consumption of about 5.709 billion tons of standard coal and coal The share of consumption will continue to decline,and the share of clean energy is expected to reach 41.7%. Finally,according to the prediction results,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on energy consumption structure,energy efficiency and energy cooperation.
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