Forecast and Prospect of China's Energy Economy under the New Trade Situation

With the change of international trade situation such as the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions since 2018，China's economy is facing new opportunities and challenges. Under the joint influences of the new trade conditions and the upgrading of domestic industries，China's energy industry is under the pressure of making corresponding adjustment when keeping relatively fast development. This study investigates China's energy economy development under the new trade situation from the perspectives of individual industries. Specifically，the output and energy consumptions of energy-intensive and energy-related industries through scenario analysis are forecasted in different scenarios，and then the trend of China's energy economy development under the new trade conditions is predicted by summing up the forecast results of all individual industries. According to the forecast results，although Sino-US trade frictions would negatively affect the output and energy consumptions of some energy-intensive and energy-related industries，the influence on China's economy as a whole is limited. At the same time，China's energy consumption structure is expected to optimize consistently with the ratio of non-fossil energy rising over time. China should focus on the key industries and take various measures to deal with the possible fluctuations of energy economy under the new trade conditions.