International Crude Oil Price Analysis and Projection in 2019

In 2018，after the international crude oil price experienced a smooth start，various factors such as production reduction agreements and nuclear sanctions influence the supply and demand of crude oil，resulting in large fluctuations throughout the year. Looking forward to 2019，this paper starts from the fundamental and non-fundamental aspects，analyzes the future trends of the global economy，crude oil supply，inventory，exchange rate，market speculation and geopolitics，and forecasts the international crude oil price trend in 2019. Considering the various influencing factors of the international crude oil market，combined with the objective calculation of the forecasting model and the subjective judgment of the experts，the international crude oil price will rise and fall in a large period in 2019，but the overall will remain at a low level，and the uncertainty of the Brent and WTI price difference will increases. As a whole，the average price of Brent and WTI crude oil is expected to reach 57~72 USD / B and 51~66 USD/B.