China's Natural Disasters Economic Growth in the Long Run——An Analysis of Co-integration Relationship based on VAR and VEC Models

A full understanding of the economic impact of natural disasters, including short-term impact effect and long-term cumulative impact, is the basis for the formulation of disaster prevention and mitigation planning and related policies at any time. However, due to limited data, empirical research on the relationship between natural disasters and economic growth in China has been relatively scarce and the conclusions are always obscure. Based on the co-integration theory, the VAR model and the Granger causality test method were used to test the relationship between natural disasters and economic growth in China. The results showed that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between China's natural disasters and economic growth; when studying the effect of natural disasters on China's economic growth, natural disasters, as a negative factor, either in the short term or in the long term, would have a negative effect on economic growth.