Evolutionary Path Analysis and Forecasting based on NSFC Funded Topics-A Case Study of Science and Technology Management and Policy

National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC),as one of the main channels for innovation and exploration of scientific and technological research in China, has been committed to supporting basic research and the exploration of cutting-edge science, supporting talent and team building, and enhancing source innovative ability. So the research topics of NSFC funded projects can, to a degree, reflect the frontier and hot spots of corresponding disciplines or research areas. Taking the disciple Science and Technology Management and Policy as an example, this paper adopted text mining and scientific metrology methods to analyze the main research topics supported by NSFC and their evolutionary laws, and forecast the possible hot topics in future research with the help of topic evolution path. It is found that the evolution trend of NSFC founded topics can be well reflected by constructing the topic evolutionary path, which is instructive and useful for the management and strategic planning of NSFC.