Path Evolution Identification of China's Electricity Consumption Cycle based on Markov-switching Model

Based on the annual electricity consumption data of China's first industry, industry, construction industry and the third industry from 1980 to 2016, H-P filtering technology was used to depict the trajectories of the trend and fluctuation of China's electricity consumption. The dynamic migration process of China's electricity consumption cycle in different districts was analyzed using MS(n)-AR(p) model. The path evolution characteristics of China's electricity consumption cycle since the reform and opening up were identified. On this basis, the regional distribution of China's power consumption cycle in the next 5 years was predicted. The study found that:(1)The fluctuation of China's electricity consumption growth rate narrowed significantly since 2003 and began to enter the downlink cycle from 2007. (2)China's power consumption cycle had a high stability, and it would not move easily to its systole period and expansion period. And China's electricity consumption in the years of "low growth regime" often corresponded to the relatively slow development of China's economic development environment.(3)In 2014-2015, China's electricity consumption showed an obvious sign of contraction, but the prediction results showed that China's electricity consumption would continue to maintain a steady growth trend in the next 5 years.