Multi-objective Scenario Analysis for Estimating the Technology Learning Rate of Unconventional Oil and Gas Extraction based on Learning Curve Theory in China

Chinese government encourages the unconventional resource extraction activity. However, the success in the field of unconventional resource is often attributed to technology progress. Technology applied in practice in China is overall at the early stage of development. There are still many challenges that impede the adaptive development of unconventional technology. In this study the authors investigated the potential technology learning rate under two technological paths based on learning curve theory. With this, the authors took shale gas extraction technology application as a representative of overall technology pattern to estimate one-factor learning curve model where there were two technology developing paths with different phase characteristics of technology capacity. The results reveal that maintaining high technology learning rate is prerequisite to achieve the goal of unconventional oil and gas development planning under multi-objective situations. In other words, under path of technology acquisition and accumulation over time, to accomplish multipurpose depends on at least technology learning rate of 3.30%~4.70%; under path of realizing technology innovation breakthrough based on production capacity accumulation, unconventional oil and gas extraction technology goes through adaptive development stage with lower technology learning rate, after that, technology innovation occurs bringing about high technology learning rate of 11.60%~14.90%.