Evaluation of Natural Gas Supply and Demand Security under the Background of Emission Reduction Constraints in China: 2006-2014

In order to accurately grasp the natural gas supply and demand security status of China, we took the data sample from 2006 to 2014 to determine the basic weight and index quantization value based on analytic hierarchy process, entropy method and fuzzy membership function, and calculate RMS and evaluate the natural gas supply and demand security status using the linear weighted function. The results showed that:(1)The natural gas supply and demand security index exhibited "N-shaped" fluctuations in China, which rose from 2006 to 2007. The natural gas supply and demand security annual index declined 1.7979 from 2007 to 2013. The natural gas supply and demand security index began to rise since 2013, the stress of which thus decreased. (2)The natural gas supply security index had fallen from 17.5914 to 0.1556 with a peak of 17.4359 from 2006 to 2013. The natural gas demand security index showed "M-shaped" fluctuations. But the natural gas market security index was relatively stable, which witnessed a slight increase since 2013, and the risk of the natural gas market declined year by year.(3)The natural gas supply and demand security depended on supply. Therefore, we gave some advice from three aspects to improve the natural gas supply and demand security:take measures to ensure natural gas supply, improve use efficiency and reduce market risk.