International Crude Oil Price Analysis and Projection in 2016

This paper summarizes the oil price trajectory in 2015 and then explores the prospect and trend of oil price in 2016 from two perspectives. The results argue that, affected by global economic situation and the supply-and-demand fundamental drivers, the oil price in 2016 will continue an overall downward trend or fluctuate at a low level in the case of excess production, even though oil price in 2015 has fallen to cost price. The research predicts that the average price for both of WTI and Brent crude oil in 2016 will be 40-50 USD/B and the spreads between the two markets will disappear.