The Zero Growth of Chinese Electricity Consumption and Its Prediction

The mutations of electricity consumption caused great disturbances to the economy. This paper has identified and analyzed the abrupt change point of the growth rate of electricity consumption per capita with PPM model. It then summarized the mutation causes and drew lessons from economic characteristics of societies undergoing mutations, and forecast the electricity consumption mutation point of China. The study found that: from 1960 to 2010, the electricity consumption in developed countries showed six significant mutations; the trajectory of electricity consumption in developed countries was a "Z" shaped curve; the causes could be summed up as the oil crisis and the financial crisis, and the power industry underwent the systematic reform and changed from monopoly to competition; the electricity consumption mutation point of China will be around 2037, when per capita electricity consumption reaches about 6 289 kWH.