Prediction of China Oil Demand with the Constraints of CO2 Abatement

China has proposed carbon dioxide reduction targets in 2015 and 2020. In this background, an optimization model considering carbon dioxide abatement target as hard constraint while taking the constraints of economic development, energy consumption structure and industrial structure into account was constructed. China's oil demands in 2015 and 2020 are 5.28 and 6.04 million tons respectively. The result shows that China's oil demand will greatly increase in the future, while its share will decrease to some degree; China's oil demand in 2015 and 2020 will be inhibited under the restrictions of CO2 emission; China's dependency on imported oil in the future will still be high.