Abstract: In 2025, under the influence of multiple factors such as the growth of global crude oil supply, the pressure of demand transformation, the adjustment of strategies by major oil-producing countries, and the reduction of geopolitical risk premiums, the international oil price showed a volatile downward trend, with the price center significantly shifting downward. Looking ahead to 2026, by analyzing future trends of various factors including global economy, energy transition, supply, inventory, the US dollar, market speculation, gold, and geopolitical risks through a two-pronged framework of fundamental and non-fundamental factors, underpinned by outputs from forecasting models and experts' judgments. Thus, a whole assessment and forecast of international crude oil prices are conducted. It is expected that profound structural shifts in the international crude oil market will persist in 2026. As supply growth outpaces demand expansion, the support for oil prices from market fundamentals will diminish further. Additionally, geopolitical conflicts will bring both short-term shocks and lingering long-term impacts, while market sentiment will be distinctly bearish. The strong correlation between the US dollar, gold, and oil prices will continue, exerting further downward pressure on oil prices and driving a sustained downward shift in the central price level. It is predicted that the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil will be within the ranges of 53~63 per barrel and 49~59 per barrel, respectively.