能源强国战略下中国能源经济指数研究

    Research on China’s Energy Economy Index under the Energy Powerhouse Strategy

    • 摘要: “十五五”开局之年,中国能源行业肩负筑牢安全屏障与培育新质生产力双重使命。聚焦传统能源及新兴能源行业发展,从政策支持、行业供需、高质量发展、股票指数及财务绩效等多维度测算中国能源经济指数现状水平,并结合耦合协调度模型探究16个能源行业未来发展潜力。研究结果显示,2025年在能源经济助力下,宏观经济抵御全球关税冲击保持平稳向好态势;预计2026年氢能、新能源车电池、光伏组件行业持续领跑,核电、生物质能行业积蓄协同发展潜力。面对全球能源格局调整,中国需坚持清洁低碳战略:针对光伏等新能源行业,通过“反内卷”等政策引导其提质增效、促进多维度协调发展;对于火电等传统行业,需推动技术转型,强化其能源系统调度保障功能,为中国式现代化提供坚实能源支撑。

       

      Abstract: In the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China’s energy sector bears the dual mission of fortifying national energy security and cultivating “new quality productive forces.” Focusing on both traditional and emerging energy sectors, the status of China’s Energy Economic Index was measured through multiple dimensions, including policy support, supply-demand dynamics, high-quality development, stock indices, and financial performance. Furthermore, a coupling coordination degree model was employed to forecast the future potential of 16 energy sub-sectors. The empirical results indicate that in 2025, underpinned by a robust energy economy, China’s macroeconomy maintained a steady and positive trajectory, effectively withstanding shocks from global tariff adjustments. Projections for 2026 suggest that sectors such as hydrogen energy, electric vehicle batteries, and photovoltaic modules will continue to lead the industry, while nuclear and biomass energy are accumulating significant potential for synergistic development. In response to the shifting global energy landscape, China must adhere to a clean and low-carbon strategy. For new energy sectors like photovoltaics, policies aimed at curbing low-level homogeneous competition should be implemented to guide quality improvement, efficiency gains, and multi-dimensional coordination. Conversely, for traditional sectors such as thermal power, emphasis should be placed on technological transformation and reinforcing their role in grid dispatch and supply security, thereby providing solid energy assurance for Chinese modernization.

       

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