贸易网络视角下全球能源转型绩效评估与短板识别

    Global Energy Transition Performance Assessment and Bottleneck Identification from a Trade-network Perspective

    • 摘要: 地缘政治动荡与技术快速迭代正在重塑全球能源供应链,并放大不确定性。现有评估体系多局限于内部指标,难以捕捉全球贸易网络演化下的动态溢出效应。结合复杂网络和机器学习,构建内部五维驱动与外部网络影响的统一框架,评估2015—2024年全球115个国家的能源转型综合绩效。结果显示:2024年全球能源贸易网络效率较高但极化上升,级联脆弱性风险加大。2024年全球各国综合水平虽优于2015年,但能源公平处于历史低值,且受制于资金与制度等支持度短板,国家间转型差距反弹。中国综合排名第13位,转型水平较2015年提升21%,主要由技术成本下降和政策支持驱动,可持续性仍具提升潜力。各国制定转型战略需统筹内部指标表现与外部网络位势,以保障在动荡格局中实现能源转型的稳健与韧性。

       

      Abstract: Geopolitical turbulence and rapid technological iteration are reshaping global energy supply chains and amplifying uncertainty. Existing assessment systems are largely confined to domestic indicators, making it difficult to capture dynamic spillovers driven by the evolution of global trade networks. In this report, complex network analysis and machine learning were integrated to build a unified framework combining internal five-dimensional drivers with external network effects, and the comprehensive energy transition performance of 115 countries from 2015 to 2024 was evaluated. The results showed that in 2024 the global energy trade network remained relatively efficient, yet polarization intensified, leading to heightened risks of cascading vulnerability. Although countries’ overall performance in 2024 was higher than in 2015, energy equity fell to a historical low and was constrained by bottlenecks in transition enablers such as finance and institutional capacity, accompanied by a rebound in cross-country disparity. China ranked 13th globally, achieving a 21% improvement compared with 2015, driven jointly by declining technology costs and strengthened policy support, while further progress remained needed in sustainability. These findings suggest that energy transition strategies should coordinate domestic performance with external network position to enhance robustness and resilience amid increasing global turbulence.

       

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