全球和中国碳市场回顾与展望(2026)

    Reviews and Prospects of China and World Carbon Markets (2026)

    • 摘要: 碳市场作为以市场机制实现低成本减排的政策工具,在全球范围内广泛应用并快速发展。全球共有38个碳市场正在运行,20个碳市场正在开发,覆盖全球近 1/3 的人口和58%的GDP,管控约120亿吨的温室气体排放,占全球排放总量的23%。《巴黎协定》78%的缔约方在其最新一轮国家自主贡献(NDC)目标中明确将碳市场作为减排工具。截至2025年底,中国的全国碳市场已完成三个履约周期的配额清缴,配额累计成交量8.65亿吨,成交额576.33亿元。2025年中国碳市场实现跨越式发展,包括实现首次行业扩围,覆盖规模与政策影响力显著提升;出台纲领性文件强化制度顶层设计与市场发展预期;集中发布14项国家核证自愿减排量(CCER)方法学等。值得注意的是,在全球碳价普遍上行的背景下,中国碳市场价格持续走弱,CCER在减排量真实性核查和细分领域项目供给等方面面临约束,反映出市场调控手段有限、制度建设目标路径还需明晰、与全球碳市场衔接不足等问题。面对全球气候治理格局加快演变的新形势,中国碳市场亟需提升市场活力、稳定建设预期,强化与全球碳定价机制和跨境减排规则的衔接,持续完善功能。

       

      Abstract: As a policy tool for achieving low-cost emission reduction through market mechanisms, carbon markets have been widely applied and developing rapidly across the globe. Currently, 38 carbon markets are in operation worldwide and another 20 are under development, covering nearly one-third of the global population and 58% of the global GDP, and regulating approximately 12 billion tons of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for 23% of the global total. As many as 78% of the signatories to the Paris Agreement have explicitly identified carbon markets as an emission reduction tool in their latest round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). By the end of 2025, China’s national carbon market had completed the quota compliance for three compliance cycles, with the cumulative trading volume of allowances reaching 865 million tons and the total transaction value hitting 57.633 billion yuan. In 2025, China’s national carbon market achieved leapfrog development, including the first expansion of covered industries which significantly raised its scale and policy influence; the issuance of programmatic documents to strengthen top-level institutional design and market development expectations; and the centralized release of 14 methodologies for China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER). However, it is worth noting that against the backdrop of the rising global carbon prices, the price of China’s national carbon market continues to weaken. Meanwhile, CCER is confronted with constraints in terms of authenticity verification of emission reductions and project supply in segmented sectors. These phenomena reflect problems such as limited market regulation tools, unclear goals and paths for institutional construction, and insufficient connection with global carbon markets. Facing the new situation of the accelerating evolution of the global climate governance landscape, China’s national carbon market is in urgent need of boosting market vitality, stabilizing development expectations, strengthening alignment with global carbon pricing mechanisms and cross-border emission reduction rules, and continuously improving its functions.

       

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