碳达峰目标下中国能源供给的安全评估及异质性

    Security Assessment and Heterogeneity of China’s Energy Supply under Carbon Peaking Goals

    • 摘要: 碳达峰、碳中和目标的深层次问题是能源问题。如何实现能源安全与低碳发展的双赢,是实现双碳目标的关键。提出碳达峰、碳中和目标下能源安全的定义,构建中国能源供给安全水平评价指标体系,基于熵值法、指数平滑和GM(1,1)模型构建了一种新的综合评价模型,对2030年碳达峰以前中国煤炭、石油和天然气三种能源的供给安全水平进行了评价和预测。得出以下结论:2000—2019年,中国综合能源和煤炭、石油和天然气三种能源的供给都未达到安全水平,至2030年,它们的供给安全水平都将有所提高且呈现出异质性。中国煤炭、石油和天然气供给安全的关键影响因素有很大区别。碳达峰目标下,煤炭供给安全受技术与效率的影响程度最大,可再生能源的发展和科技进步将成为提高中国能源供给安全水平的关键驱动力。

       

      Abstract: One profound problem for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals is the energy problem. How to achieve a win-win situation between energy security and low-carbon development is the key to achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Based on such consideration, the definition of energy security under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals was proposed, a security level evaluation index system for China’s coal, oil, and natural gas was established, and a new comprehensive evaluation model based on Entropy method, exponential smoothing, and GM (1,1) method was constructed to explore energy security of China’s coal, oil and natural gas. The results show: From 2000 to 2019, the supply of comprehensive energy, coal, oil and natural gas in China failed to reach the security standard, but their supply security levels will improve by 2030 and exhibit heterogeneity. Key influencing factors for the supply security of China’s coal, oil, and natural gas are different. Coal supply security is most affected by technology and efficiency, but both oil and natural gas security are affected by affordability. The development of renewable energy and technological progress will become a key driving force for improving China’s energy supply security level under the carbon peaking goals.

       

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