投资者日度情绪、超额收益率与市场流动性——基于DCC-GARCH模型的时变相关性研究

    Daily Investor Sentiment,Excess Return and Market Liquidity—Research on Time-varying Correlation based on DCC-GARCH Model

    • 摘要: 随着互联网科技的发展,利用数据挖掘手段不仅可以构建投资者高频情绪指标,也有助于深入研究投资者情绪与股票市场运行之间的内在联动性。选取2009-2018年共2 198个交易日样本,运用爬虫软件挖掘股票市场大盘评述的网络数据,采用自然语言处理技术进行文本分析,构建了投资者情绪日度指标,利用DCC-GARCH模型研究了投资者情绪、市场超额收益率和市场流动性之间的时变相关关系。实证结果发现:投资者情绪与市场超额收益率和流动性间存在时变相关性,动态条件相关系数总体为正;投资者情绪与市场超额收益率和流动性间的动态条件相关系数具有长期记忆性,并且会受到宏观经济变量的影响;相比于牛市,熊市环境中股票市场的运行对投资者情绪的变动更为敏感;相对于月度数据,更高频的日度指标在刻画情绪与股票市场的相关程度时,能捕捉到即时、准确的信息。这些结论对于深入理解投资者情绪与股票收益和流动性的联动机理有一定意义。

       

      Abstract: With the development of Internet technology,using data mining techniques can not only construct and measure high-frequency emotional indicators of investors,but also help in-depth study of the intrinsic linkage between investor sentiment and stock market operations. The paper selects a total of 2 198 trading days in 2009-2018,using reptile software to excavate the network data reviewed by the Stock Exchange Index,using natural language processing techniques for text analysis,and constructing investor sentiment diurnal indices,uses DCC-GARCH model to study the time-varying correlation between investor sentiment,market excess returns and market liquidity. The empirical results show that there is a time-varying correlation between investor sentiment and market excess returns and liquidity,and the dynamic condition correlation coefficient is positive overall. This correlation has long-term memory,and it can be affected by the macroeconomic factors; Compared to the bull market,the operation of the stock market in a bear market environment is more sensitive to changes in investor sentiment. Compared to the monthly data,the higher-frequency daily indicator can capture instant and accurate information when describing sentiment and stock market relevance. These conclusions have certain significance for deep understanding of the linkage mechanism between investor sentiment and stock returns and liquidity.

       

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