民间资本介入城市公交的能耗和排放效果分析

    Energy Consumption and Emission Effects of Private Capital Investment in Urban Public Transportation

    • 摘要: 为定量分析民间资本介入城市公交的能耗和排放效果,用系统动力学(System Dynamics,SD)方法,构建民间资本(简称"民资")介入公交的SD仿真模型,从环境角度分析考虑乘客价值的民资介入公交模式对环境影响的累积效果。通过济南公交运营数据验证SD模型的有效性,并以济南公交一个车队100辆公交车为例进行环境影响效果仿真。结果表明:民资介入公交有助于节能减排,考虑乘客价值的民资介入公交模式比传统的民资介入模式有更好的节能减排效果。其中,考虑乘客价值的民资介入公交模式比民资未介入公交,100个月累积减少燃油消耗398千升,减少CO2排放109吨,减少CO排放542千克,减少SO2排放1.6千克,减少PM10排放77.3千克。从环境角度验证考虑乘客价值的民资介入公交模式的优越性,为管理者从环境角度系统评价民资介入公交的效果提供理论支持。

       

      Abstract: In order to quantitatively analyze the energy consumption and emission effects of private capital investment in public transportation,system dynamic approach was used to analyze the cumulative effects of private capital investment in public transportation from the environmental perspective. The validity of system dynamic model of private capital investment in public transportation was verified by the operation data of Jinan public traffic. Simulation results show that the fuel consumption and emission reduction are obvious when the private capital invests in public transport considering passenger value compared to without private capital investment and traditional private capital investment. The cumulative reductions of fuel consumption,CO2,CO,SO2 and PM10 emissions are 398 Kilo liters,109 tons,542 kilograms,1.6 kilograms,and 77.3 kilograms respectively during 100 months compared to without private capital investment. This research verifies the superiority of private capital investment in public transportation considering passenger value from the environment perspective,and supplies a theoretical support for administrators to evaluate the effects of private capital investment systematically.

       

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