佘运磊, 周琪, 曲申. 中国洪涝灾害的产业链动态损失评估[J]. 北京理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2023, 25(1): 27-42. DOI: 10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2023.1175
    引用本文: 佘运磊, 周琪, 曲申. 中国洪涝灾害的产业链动态损失评估[J]. 北京理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2023, 25(1): 27-42. DOI: 10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2023.1175
    SHE Yunlei, ZHOU Qi, QU Shen. Dynamic Loss Assessment of Flood Disaster Industrial Chain in China[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology (Social Sciences Edition), 2023, 25(1): 27-42. DOI: 10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2023.1175
    Citation: SHE Yunlei, ZHOU Qi, QU Shen. Dynamic Loss Assessment of Flood Disaster Industrial Chain in China[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology (Social Sciences Edition), 2023, 25(1): 27-42. DOI: 10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2023.1175

    中国洪涝灾害的产业链动态损失评估

    Dynamic Loss Assessment of Flood Disaster Industrial Chain in China

    • 摘要: 随着水文现象强度频率的增加和社会经济的持续发展,中国洪涝灾害造成的直接经济损失呈上升趋势,为制定防灾减灾、适应战略和灾后补偿恢复政策,全面评估洪涝灾害的经济损失是一项重要工作。基于复杂网络和适应性主体的环境经济系统模型,在多区域评估框架下,逐日高精度模拟了2017年中国长江中游区域性洪水、洞庭湖流域性洪水、松花江洪水和台风天鸽风暴潮洪水等造成的直接损失通过产业链传播引发的间接经济损失,展示了各省份—部门受产业链冲击和产品短缺情况,体现了模型的供应链预警能力。结果显示,2017年间接经济损失为621.6亿元,占直接经济损失的29%,80%以上来自没有直接经济损失的制造业和服务业;洪涝灾害直接影响会通过产业链扩散到未受洪灾影响的省份,但间接经济损失大多发生在省内,这可能与各企业本地化的产业链选择有关;制造业发达地区单位直接冲击造成的间接经济损失更高,可能与其资本密集度高以及产业间联系密切的特定经济结构有关。建议各级政府加大非工程措施适应性资金投入,增强社会公众和承载体抗灾能力;建立洪水保险和风险补偿机制,促进灾区尽快恢复重建;关键省份—行业要进行库存储备和产能冗余,减少洪涝灾害造成的直接经济损失和间接经济损失。

       

      Abstract: With the increase in the intensity and frequency of hydrological phenomena and the rapid development of social economy, direct economic losses caused by floods in China show an upward trend. In order to formulate disaster prevention and mitigation plans, adaptive strategies, and post-disaster compensation and recovery policies, it is important to comprehensively evaluate the economic losses caused by floods. Under the framework of multi-regional assessment, the environmental economic system model based on complex network and adaptive agents was used to simulate the daily indirect economic losses caused by regional floods in China transmitted through the industrial chain, such as floods in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, floods in Dongting Lake Basin, floods in Songhua River, and the storm surge of Typhoon Tiange in 2017. The model shows the impact of the industrial chain and product shortage of all sectors in the regions concerned and reflects the early warning ability of the supply chain. The results show that the indirect economic loss in 2017 was 62.16 billion yuan, accounting for 29% of the direct economic loss, and more than 80% of the loss came from the manufacturing and service industries, which suffered no direct economic loss. The direct impact of flood disasters also spread to unaffected provinces through the supply chain, but most of the indirect economic losses mostly occurred in this local province, which may be related to the localized supply chain choice of enterprises. The indirect losses caused by work units’ direct impact in areas with developed manufacturing industries are higher, which may be related to their specific economic structures with high capital intensity and close inter-industry ties. Governments at all levels should increase their investment of adaptation funds in non-engineering measures to improve disaster resistance of the public and the carrier, set up flood insurance and risk compensation mechanisms to promote the recovery and reconstruction of disaster areas as soon as possible. Key regions and industries should carry out inventory reserve and capacity redundancy, to reduce the direct and indirect economic losses caused by floods.

       

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