中国数据中心综合能耗及其灵活性预测

    Comprehensive Energy Consumption and Flexibility Forecast of Data Centers in China

    • 摘要: 为厘清在双碳愿景下数据中心的综合能耗及灵活性资源大小,构建全国数据中心综合能耗及其灵活性的预测模型,通过综合考量算力增长、技术进步等多元因素,模拟预测了2023—2030年全国数据中心的综合能耗及灵活性需求。研究表明,预计到2030年,中国数据中心的电力负荷、耗电量、耗水量、碳排放量将分别达到1.1亿千瓦、5 257.6亿千瓦时,2 628.8亿升、3.1亿吨。同时,数据中心内部的算力、电力和热力灵活性资源能够显著削减碳排放、能耗和运行成本,2030年全国数据中心的总灵活性资源在2.3万~4.0万兆瓦之间。基于此,提出加强数据中心能耗单列、促进算力与电力的双向协同及其相关标准规范、工程示范以及市场机制等建议。

       

      Abstract: To clarify the comprehensive energy consumption and the size of flexible resources of data centers under the dual-carbon (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality) vision, this paper constructed a predictive model for the comprehensive energy consumption and flexibility of data centers nationwide. By comprehensively considering various factors such as computing power growth and technological advances, the model simulated and predicted the comprehensive energy consumption and flexibility requirements of data centers across China from 2023 to 2030. The research indicates that by 2030, China's data centers are projected to have an electric load of 110 million kW, electricity consumption of 525.76 billion kWh, water consumption of 262.88 billion liters, and carbon emissions of 310 million tons. Additionally, the computing power, electricity, and thermal flexibility resources within data centers can significantly reduce carbon emissions, energy consumption, and operational costs. In 2030, the total flexibility resources of China’s data centers are expected to range between 23 000 and 40 000 MW. Based on these findings, this paper proposes recommendations such as strengthening the separate accounting of data center energy consumption, promoting bidirectional coordination between computing power and electricity, and establishing related standards, norms, engineering demonstrations, and market mechanisms.

       

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