面向双碳的能源产业和金融政策体系设计思考

    Dual Carbon Oriented Energy Industry and Financial Policy System Design

    • 摘要: 全球能源低碳转型持续深化,技术创新和技术竞争不断升温,双碳转型对中国而言既是承担大国责任、实现技术和产业升级、实现国家能源安全自主的历史性机遇,也会给以化石能源为主的传统能源系统带来巨大挑战。能源转型过程在较长时期内面临绿色、经济、安全的多目标权衡−“不可能三角”问题,为此有必要构建“1+N”双碳政策体系,以克服单个减排政策的局限性。而构建完善双碳“1+N”政策体系需要把握其内在特征:多政策交互、主体微观特征丰富、转型风险复杂,把握内在特征是构建政策体系的关键问题。综述关键问题领域的研究进展,按照政策实证评估和政策仿真两条方法论主线,提出只有通过事后评估与事前仿真、传统研究方法和大数据等新型研究方法相结合才能更好地构建、完善双碳“1+N”政策体系,推动平稳实现中国社会经济在双碳转型过程中面临的巨大变革。

       

      Abstract: The low-carbon transformation of global energy sector continues to deepen, and technological innovation and technological competition continue to heat up. The dual carbon transformation is not only a historic opportunity for China to fulfill the responsibility of a big country, realize technological and industrial upgrading, and realize control over national energy security, but also a huge challenge to the traditional energy system dominated by fossil energy. The energy transformation process faces the “Impossible Triangle” problem of multi-objective trade-offs of greeness, economic efficiency and security requirement for a long time. Therefore, it is necessary to build a “1+N” dual carbon policy system to overcome the limitations of a single emission reduction policy. The construction and improvement of the “1+N” policy system needs to grasp its internal characteristics: multi policy interaction, rich micro characteristics of the participants, and complex transformation risks. Grasping the internal characteristics is the key to the construction of the policy system. This paper summarizes the research progress in key problem areas. According to the two main methodological lines of policy empirical evaluation and policy simulation, it is proposed that only through the combination of ex post evaluation and ex ante simulation, and the combination of traditional methods and the new approaches such as big data, can we better build and improve the dual carbon “1+N” policy system, and promote the smooth realization of the huge changes faced by China's social economy in the process of dual carbon transformation.

       

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