城镇化偏差与城乡收入差距非线性均衡及调控

    Urbanization Deviation and Urban-rural Income Gap's Nonlinear Equilibrium and Control

    • 摘要: 遵循从一般到特殊的建模方法,利用1978—2015年中国时间序列数据,构建城镇化偏差与城乡收入差距的非线性动力系统模型,并对模型进行了均衡分析和政策目标模拟最优控制。研究结果表明:城镇化偏差与城乡收入差距存在复杂的非线性影响关系,系统3个均衡点中2个为鞍点,1个为排斥子,不存在吸引子,系统处于较不稳定的状态。由于鞍点均衡点较目前的城镇化偏差与城乡收入差距水平好,其中较好的结果甚至接近历史最低水平,因此可以作为政策调控的目标。模拟最优控制发现,以鞍点均衡点为目标的线性二次型控制系统具有能控性,选取适当的控制政策,系统可以收敛至理想目标状态。相关政策启示为:缩小城镇化偏差和城乡收入差距的政策具有必要性和可能性。

       

      Abstract: Following the general-to-special modeling method and using the China's time series data from 1978 to 2015, this paper built a nonlinear dynamical system model of urbanization deviation and the urban-rural income gap. The equilibriums of the model were analyzed, and the optimal control of policy objectives was simulated. Results show that:Urbanization deviation and urban-rural income gap have complex nonlinear effects. Two of the three equilibrium points of the system are saddle points, and one is repellor. There is no attractor, so the system is relatively unstable. As the level of urbanization deviation and urban-rural income gap at the saddle point are lower than the current level, and the better equilibrium point is even close to the lowest level in history, they can be used as the targets of control policies. The virtual optimal control shows that, the linear quadratic control system with a saddle point as the control target is controllable. By choosing the appropriate control policies, the system can converge to the ideal target state. The policy implication is that it is necessary and possible to make control policies to narrow urbanization deviation and urban-rural income gap.

       

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