Abstract: Geological and technological factors are two major factor-groups to affect the quality of unconventional oil and gas development. Meanwhile,technological factor is considered to be a dominant factor restricing unconventional resource exploitation. Taking tight gas production data of S-block as research sample set,building structural equation model(SEM)of capacity level with self-orgnization learning technique(GMDH)of influencing factor to evaluating effects of geological parameters and technology parameters on capacity evaluation-index by Bayesian estimation with a perspective of quantitative analysis. The results show that the impact of observation index to geological process and technological process plays a different role under a defferetnt development scale. Geological effect is considered to be dominant factor affecting production levels comparaed with technological effect. Exploitation quality of unconventional resource is infuecnced more by geological process with a large degree. Therefore,emphasis of technicality of unconventional resource development face challengs when considering managnment style in this field. To strengthen geological research of unconventional oil and gas development is the key to enhance the level of technology local adaptation.