中国与中亚国家能源合作问题——基于演化博弈模型的分析
Energy Cooperation Research about China and Central Asian Countries —Based on Evolutionary Game Model Analysis
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摘要: 构建演化博弈模型分析中国与中亚国家的能源合作问题,研究表明:(1)降低中国及中亚国家在进行能源合作时各自的付出成本会提高能源合作的可能性.(2)提高中国及中亚国家在进行能源合作时各自的收益会提高能源合作的可能性.(3)中国及中亚国家在进行能源合作时的初始意愿对能源合作会产生重要影响:当中国及中亚国家在初始时刻都十分愿意进行能源合作时,能源合作最终一定会成功;当中国及中亚国家在初始时刻有一方不愿意进行能源合作时,能源合作最终不一定能成功.研究还发现,中亚国家与中国进行能源合作的意愿不强烈是导致中国与中亚国家能源合作项目成果较少的主要原因.Abstract: This paper analyzed energy cooperation between China and central Asian countries based on evolutionary game model. It showed:firstly,the possibility of energy cooperation would be improved if the energy cooperation cost decreased;secondly,the possibility of energy cooperation would also be improved if energy cooperation earnings increased. It also revealed that the initial intention of cooperation was important to energy cooperation. That is,the energy cooperation must succeed in the end when China and central Asian countries were all very willing to carry out energy cooperation at the initial moment. The energy cooperation wouldn't succeed when there were one side unwilling to cooperate with the other side. This paper also found that the reluctance of energy cooperation between China and Central Asian countries was the main reason leading to few energy cooperation projects.
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