中国人均SO2排放的省际收敛性——基于面板数据的实证分析

    The Convergence in per Capita SO2 Emissions across Chinese Provinces—An Empirical Panel Data Analysis

    • 摘要: 随着中国经济持续快速发展,中国的环境污染问题也日益突出。作为一种常规污染物,SO2的排放长期受到中国政府的高度重视。采集1992—2012年中国30个省市的人均SO2排放量,运用静态与动态面板相结合的回归方式,对于省际人均SO2排放量的相对与绝对收敛性进行研究,对影响人均SO2排放收敛的因素进行分析。结果表明: 在总样本期上,省际人均SO2排放量存在着绝对与相对收敛。相对于2001年以后的时期,2001年以前的省际人均SO2排放量收敛速度更快。对于收敛速度的影响因素,二次产业比重与中国SO2排放具有显著的正相关关系,更高的二次产业占GDP比重会降低收敛速度。而各省人均实际GDP与人口密度则对人均SO2的排放量有负向影响,更高的人均收入和人口密度会使人均SO2排放收敛速度加快。

       

      Abstract: Due to the high growth rate of Chinese economy, environmental pollution has become a social focus. SO2 is a typical traditional pollutant, which has attracted the attention of Chinese government since the early 1990s. This article employed China's provincial panel data between 1992 and 2012 to investigate the absolute and relative convergence in per capita SO2 emissions across provinces. We utilized static and dynamic panel data estimators, and analyzed the main impact factors which may affect the convergence speed. The empirical results indicate that in the chosen sample period, there were absolute and conditional convergences in per capita SO2 emissions. Compared with the period after the year of 2001, the convergence speed was faster during the pre-2001 period. According to the factors that might influence convergence speed, the ratio of secondary industry to GDP has a significant positive impact on SO2 emissions. Therefore, a higher ratio of secondary industry to GDP would reduce the convergence speed. The real GDP per capita and population density are both estimated to be negatively related with SO2 emissions. Hence higher income per capita or higher population density would accelerate the convergence progress.

       

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